FSD & AI
The software that every other bet depends on: where Full Self-Driving stands, who has approved it, what regulators are investigating, and the chips underneath.
FSD (Supervised) is the driver-assistance system sold on every Tesla; the unsupervised version is what runs the Robotaxi. Both are camera-only, trained end-to-end on video from the fleet.
Versions: v14 to v15
v14 began rolling in October 2025 on an architecture with roughly ten times the parameters, bringing back the “Mad Max” speed profile and adding five-level profiles; v14.2 went wide from November 21, 2025 with a Self-Driving Stats feature. Not a Tesla App
v15 is the stack the Cybercab and the Robotaxi Model Ys run. Ashok Elluswamy said on October 21 it is coming to customer cars “pretty soon,” along with Tesla's own AI-based mapping to replace third-party maps. Unsupervised FSD for customer-owned cars appears to have slipped to around Q2 2027 and, initially, to Robotaxi service areas — reports conflict, so we flag it. Q3 call
On October 21 Musk posted: “People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around.” More than 75% of North American deliveries in Q3 included a paid FSD subscription; for the first time half of paid customers are on subscription rather than purchase.
Around the world
- Europe — the Dutch RDW granted the first EU approval for FSD Supervised on April 10, 2026 after 18 months of testing and 1.6 million km. Lithuania, Estonia, Denmark, Belgium, Slovenia, Czechia and Croatia followed. Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the UK had not approved as of October. Musk: “I would be surprised if it takes longer than Q1” for EU-wide approval. Electrek
- China — sold as “Tesla Assisted Driving” for RMB 64,000 (~$9,500); the CFO says unsupervised approval there will be “hard.”
- Elsewhere — live in the US, Canada, Mexico, Puerto Rico, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand: 16 countries in all.
Safety data and investigations
Tesla's claim: one major collision per 6.0 million miles with FSD Supervised engaged versus a US average of one per 660,000 — about 9× — over 9.48 billion engaged miles in the trailing twelve months. Tesla does not assign fault and counts a crash if FSD was active within five seconds of impact. EVwire
Open NHTSA matters:
- EA26002 (Mar 18, 2026) — engineering analysis of FSD in reduced visibility covering ~3.2 million vehicles; nine crashes including one fatal.
- A traffic-violation (red-light) probe covering ~2.88 million vehicles, and a 2025 probe into the timeliness of Tesla's crash reporting.
- Vineland, NJ — Tesla's filing marked Autopilot/FSD “Verified Engaged” at 37 mph in an August 22, 2026 median-crossing crash that killed a 68-year-old driver; the narrative is redacted. Electrek
- Robotaxi-specific: AQ26002 (Cybercab certification) and DP26010 (school zones) — see Robotaxi.
Chips and compute
AI5 is in trial production at Samsung's Taylor, Texas fab on 2nm (Sept 2026), with mass production in 2027 at both Samsung and TSMC; AI6 is covered by a $16.5B Samsung deal. Dojo was shut down in August 2025. The long-term answer is Terafab. Grok, xAI's assistant, has been in the cars since July 2025 as a chatbot only — it cannot control the vehicle.